Doubts cast over Warwickshire Fire Service calculations for new operating model as it starts to make on-call firefighters redundant
DOUBTS have been cast over how the fire service has created its new operating model as it starts to make on-call firefighters redundant.
As previously reported, Warwickshire County Council’s cabinet approved proposals by the Warwickshire Fire and Rescue Service (WFRS) to change its fire cover and make firefighters redundant on 16th July. Following a review of how WFRS use its resources, a public consultation took place earlier this year, and despite vociferous objections to changes to the on-call system, its new model will effectively do away with these part-time firefighters, trained members of the community who respond to emergency calls.
The cabinet’s approval of the plans included £1.75m to fund the new operating model, which the fire service maintains will provide better coverage.
Chief fire officer Ben Brook said: “As part of our responsibility to identify and assess the fire and rescue risks across the county, we have to make sure we have the right arrangements in place to manage those risks. This new model will help us to overcome some of the challenges we’re currently facing and build in resilience so that we can deal with future and emerging risks such as climate change. It also means we have more guaranteed fire engines available during times of higher activity, significantly enhancing our service delivery and making Warwickshire a safer place for all our residents.”
Under the new model, the fire service says 14 engines will be available during the day, when activity is highest, and 13 at night, when the risk is lower. Mr Brook added that this represented “a significant improvement from the current guaranteed 11 engines during the day and eight at night.”
The new model calculates that average response times for the most urgent incidents across the county would improve by 58 seconds to under 10 minutes, “ensuring quicker assistance when and where it is needed the most. It also improves the average response time for a second engine when this is needed.”
However, the figures and reasoning are disputed by Tristan Ashby, chief executive officer of the Fire and Rescue Association.
He said: “They are now moving forward to reduce the potential of 23 fire appliances being available during the day and 21 at night, to just 14 during the day and 13 at night. Shipston, Gaydon and Fenny Compton stations will effectively close. They will have so-called resilience teams, which can be deployed in two hours.
“There will be no on-call firefighters at Stratford, Fenny Compton, Shipston, Kenilworth, Bedworth, Coleshill and Atherstone. These firefighters now face redundancy.”
He continued: “The future of the on-call firefighters at these stations is bleak. It is highly unlikely that any firefighters will move house for £4,000 a year, and many do not want to be wholetime firefighters. They now face redundancy, and Warwickshire will lose a significant number of fully trained and committed firefighters.
“It beggars belief that any right thinking organisation would want to make these community-focused and highly-skilled workers redundant at the same time as reducing fire cover from the potential of 23 fire engines down to 14. A ten-pump fire such as that at neighbouring Hook Norton Brewery in May, would wipe out fire cover in the county.”
He added: “By its own estimates, the benefit will only be a 58 second improvement in response time across the county, but a worsening of response times in Stratford and north Warwickshire, which already have the worst response times in the county. The arrival of the second engine will also be longer in those areas already with slow response times.”
Taking aim at the decision-makers, Mr Ashby said: “This is costing the council taxpayer £2.3m in the first three years taken from reserves, and there is no guarantee of financial sustainability after that. The net effect will be slightly improved response time in urban areas where response times are already good, and a longer response in rural areas where response times are already poor. It is a complete shambles. Ben Brook, portfolio holder Andy Crump and leader of the council Izzi Seccombe, should hang their heads in shame.”
Are the calculations right?
SHIPSTON mayor Cllr John Dinnie, who has a background in statistics and mechanical engineering with the automotive industry, cast doubt on the way the fire service calculated the figures for its new operating model.
He told the Herald: “The fire service has chosen the mean response time as the measure of effectiveness of the fire service. The problem with the arithmetic mean is that it is a measure of location not spread of a variable. This is even more true if the distribution is skewed, which this one will be (for example, if there are a few very long response times). The correct measure of performance for a skewed distribution is mode (the most frequently occurring result) plus three upper standard deviations. This then encourages improvement of the worst results, in this case the worst response times.
“A further improvement strategy is also to mount a special investigation into any outliers – ie any result worse than mode plus three sigma.”
The mean is the average response time, the mode is the most commonly occurring response time. Looking at only the mean gives little information about the range of response times, or how often they are very long or very short in order to deal with the worst performance.
Defending its sums, a spokesperson for the fire service said: “WFRS use a mean average target for response times as this is in line with the approach taken by the Office for National Statistics and other fire services.”
They added: “The new model offers a number of improvements on the current operating model, including a higher number of guaranteed fire engines available, improved average response times across the county and an increase in capacity to carry out prevention and protection work.”
