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The chances of a white Christmas for December 2022 revealed with the Met Office's first long range forecast





If your family is crossing its fingers for a white Christmas this year, you might be left waiting a little longer according to the Met Office's first long range forecast for the festive period.

Meteorologists have now released their initial weather predictions for late December and - most crucially - the chances of a dusting of the all important white stuff.

The Met Office has released the first of its long range forecasts covering December
The Met Office has released the first of its long range forecasts covering December

Autumn has so far been a relatively mild - but wet - affair with flood warnings still remaining in place this week in some parts of the country.

From Saturday - and the first weekend of December - the rain is expected to continue with any chance of showers turning wintry only likely to be confined to higher ground in the north.

Temperatures meanwhile, which have been on the warmer side are expected to return to something more akin to average for the early half of December which may mean we all need to start pulling out the scarves and hats.

The Met Office's long range December forecast, which is divided into two, then looks further ahead to the second half of the month and the period between Tuesday, December 13 and Tuesday, December 27.

Are you dreaming of a white Christmas?
Are you dreaming of a white Christmas?

And so far, the chances of a White Christmas it seems are slim.

Settled conditions, thanks to higher pressure over the UK is expected to lead to drier weather with temperatures close to normal. And while some colder conditions are expected at times, say forecasters, early suggestions are that this will be no more than overnight frost and fog for some areas with little sign of much snow.

How accurate is a long range forecast?

When looking at forecasts further than five days ahead, says the Met Office, 'the future chaotic nature of the atmosphere' comes into play.

So while using models and data can be helpful to forecast a general feel for weather weeks, more detailed predictions and particularly more localised weather forecasts are harder to determine - meaning that there is always the chance its predictions for a white Christmas will change the closer we get to December 25.

It is also the reason that Met Office forecasts for specific towns and cities are only deemed to be accurate for around five days, and anything further into the future is given for the UK as a whole.

Will we see snow like this over Christmas?
Will we see snow like this over Christmas?

The Met Office added: "Our long range forecast provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK.

"Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts."



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